Demographic Shift - End of the Growth Era
In my previous article, "2.21 Billion Suddenly Dead by 2030," I examined declining global industry stats and birth rates to project a population forecast for 2030. In this follow-up, I analyze recent health data to determine if there have been any significant changes or trends.
2024-25 Excess Mortality
Dutch insurer Aegon booked a charge of around $400 million in the first half of 2024 to reflect higher death-related insurance claims in its key US market, due to elevated mortality levels. Separately, Swiss Re has warned that excess mortality could remain elevated for years, projecting it may stabilize at 3% for the US and 2.5% for the UK by 2033 if current trends continue.
2023-24 Global Autoimmune Disease Trends
2024 marked a convergence of economic contraction, rising chronic illness, excess mortality and shifting population patterns across much of the developed world. Rates of autoimmune disease, myocarditis, and cancer continue to rise sharply since 2020, affecting over 430 million people globally (see sources at the bottom). These conditions often require lifelong treatment, driving record-breaking revenue for big pharma, exceeding $310 billion in 2024 alone. While most sectors contracted, the US and global pharma markets expanded by 4.5% and 6%, respectively.
Hashimoto’s Thyroiditis: 3-4% annual growth, 200M people, Generates <$0.5B
Psoriasis: 3-4% annual growth, 125M people, Generates $2.3B
Rheumatoid Arthritis: 5% annual growth, 24M people, Generates $5.5B
Celiac Disease: 5% annual growth, 20M+ people, Generates <$0.1B
Cancer: 8-10% annual growth, 20M people, Generates $250B
Type 1 Diabetes: 3-4% annual growth, 10-15M people, Generates $10B+
Inflammatory Bowel Disease: 3-4% annual growth, 10M people, Generates $5.5B
Psoriatic Arthritis: 3% annual growth, 5M people, Generates $7–8B
Systemic Lupus Erythematosus: 5-7% annual growth, 5M people, Generates $1.2B
Myocarditis: 4-5% annual growth, 3.0-3.5M people, Generates <$0.5B
Multiple Sclerosis: 3-4% annual growth, 2.8M people, Generates $25B
Systemic Sclerosis: 1.5-2% annual growth, 2.5M people, Generates $0.3B
Ankylosing Spondylitis: 3-4% annual growth, 1-2M people, Generates $1B
Sjögren’s Syndrome: 1.5-2% annual growth, 0.5-4M people, Generates <$0.1B
Myasthenia Gravis: 40%+ annual growth, 0.7-1M people, Generates $1B
Chasing Ghost Markets at the End of the Growth Era
The world is facing a demographic crisis. Falling birth rates and aging populations are shrinking communities, closing schools and straining infrastructure. Countries such as Japan, Spain and Italy are seeing widespread depopulation, and similar patterns are spreading across the developed world.
At the same time, industries such as auto, real estate, fashion and retail are contracting, while pharma is growing, driven by rising chronic illness and autoimmune disease. It reflects a deeper shift when you factor in fewer births, more people disappearing from the workforce, and increasing medical dependence, which point to a long-term population decline that’s reshaping the global economy through 2030 and beyond.
Many companies have not yet adjusted. The real estate sector is near collapse, the auto industry is weakening and decentralization is accelerating across all sectors. Brands like Cracker Barrel pivoted to target the so-called "woke" demographic in response to declining demand, but the core issue isn’t marketing; it’s the market itself that’s shrinking. The "woke" demographic is far smaller than the mainstream media claims. Globalist propaganda in education, combined with inexperience and misjudgment, prevents CEOs from hearing the silent majority. Chasing growth through imaginary demographics is accelerating the decline of the old system, as we transition toward more localized, sovereign communities.
These converging trends, population loss, chronic disease, excess mortality and industry contractions signal more than economic slowdown. They mark the end of the growth era. Centralized systems are breaking down. Localism/community, autonomy and self-reliance are rising up. Movements such as WEXIT in Canada are gaining traction as large-scale institutions break down. I suspect we’ll see some woke/globalist state leadership pushing for separation.
What’s coming is not collapse, but realignment. The global order is giving way to a decentralized future, less about growth, more about resilience.
Sources: WHO, CDC, EvaluatePharma, Aegon, Swiss Re, UN Population Division, Statista, Nielsen, PubMed, Celiac Disease Foundation, Lancet, The Economist, Foreign Affairs.
One clean sentence:
The post-COVID data now say what actuarial tables have always whispered: a population shrinking at both ends—too few arriving through the birth gate, too many departing through the sickness gate—***means the old promise of endless growth has quietly expired***.